The most comprehensive assessment of the global environment ever undertaken has found that investing in a stable climate, healthy nature and land, and a pollution-free planet can deliver trillions in additional global GDP, avoid millions of deaths and lift hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and hunger.
The Global Environment Outlook, Seventh Edition: A Future We Choose (GEO-7), released during theseventh session of the United Nations Environment Assembly in Nairobi, is the product of 287 multi-disciplinary scientists from 82 countries.
Dr Elias Symeonakis, Reader in Earth Observation and GIS at Manchester Metropolitan University, provided expert insight and analysis for two chapters in the report and is the lead author on the subject of land degradation.
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report finds that climate change, biodiversity loss, land degradation, desertification, and pollution and waste have taken a heavy toll on the planet, people and economies – already costing trillions of dollars each year. Following current development pathways will only intensify this toll.
However, whole-of-society and whole-of-government approaches to transform the systems of economy and finance, materials and waste, energy, food and the environment would deliver global macroeconomic benefits that could reach US$20 trillion per year by 2070 and continue growing.
Dr Symeonakis said: “The findings outlined in this report detail the current and future consequences of existing approaches to the global environment. Regarding land degradation, we have shown that each year, the world loses fertile land equal to the size of Ethiopia or Colombia, driven by deforestation and unsustainable production and consumption systems.
“Despite restoration pledges, land degradation is projected to worsen by 2050 due to expanding cropland and urban areas, and harmful land-use practices. However, the actions and change in policies and models proposed in the report are a clear way forward in helping to address these negative consequences and positively impact lives and communities across the world by investing in the health of our planet.
“Following whole-of-society, whole-of-government approaches to reshaping the systems of economy and finance, materials and waste, energy, food and the environment would set humanity down a far better path.”
The report recommends behavioural changes to place, less emphasis on material consumption, and changes in which the world relies primarily on technological development and efficiency gains.
By implementing these changes, the report predicts that the global macroeconomic benefits will start to appear in 2050, grow to US$20 trillion per year by 2070 and boom thereafter to US$100 trillion per year. These transformations are also projected to reduce exposure to climate risks, reduce biodiversity loss by 2030 and lead to an increase in natural lands.
Nine million premature deaths can be avoided by 2050, through measures such as cutting air pollution, says the report. By 2050, almost 200 million people could be lifted out of undernourishment and over 100 million people out of extreme poverty.
To achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 and ensure adequate funding for conserving and restoring biodiversity, annual investment of about US$8 trillion is needed until 2050. However, the cost of inaction is far higher.
Inger Andersen, UNEP Executive Director, said: “The Global Environment Outlook lays out a simple choice for humanity: continue down the road to a future devastated by climate change, dwindling nature, degraded land and polluted air, or change direction to secure a healthy planet, healthy people and healthy economies. This is no choice at all.
“And let us not forgot the world has already made so much progress: from global deals covering climate change, nature, land and biodiversity, and pollution and waste, to real-world change in the booming renewables industry, global coverage of protected areas, and the phasing out of toxic chemicals.
“I call on all nations to build on this progress, invest in planetary health and drive their economies towards a thriving, sustainable future.”
Sweeping transformations
Following the report’s recommendations would require sweeping changes across five key areas. The report outlines recommended measures for each area, including:
- Economy and finance: Move beyond GDP to comprehensive inclusive wealth metrics; price positive and negative externalities to value goods correctly; and phase out and repurpose subsidies, taxes and incentives that result in negative impacts on nature.
- Materials and waste: Implement circular product design, transparency and traceability of products, components and materials; shift investments to circular and regenerative business models; and shift consumption patterns towards circularity through changing mindsets.
- Energy: Decarbonize the energy supply; increase energy efficiency; back social and environmental sustainability in critical mineral value chains; and address energy access and energy poverty.
- Food systems: Shift to healthy and sustainable diets; enhance circularity and production efficiency; and reduce food loss and waste.
- Environment: Accelerate conservation and restoration of biodiversity and ecosystems; back climate adaptation and resilience, leaning on Nature-based Solutions; and implement climate mitigation strategies.
The full report is available on the UNEP website.
